The silver lining of Trump's invasion of Iran is that China's cleantech exports have gone up by 25% in the last six months. In the last two months alone, they've exported $25 billion US a month in cleantech. So the biggest beneficiary of Trump's war on Iran is China.
Trump's Iran War Is Accelerating Global Clean Energy Adoption
Global Electrification
China's industry is allowing countries like Nigeria and Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan to electrify and get off their addiction to imported oil, imported coal, and imported LNG.
Now, oil's not a problem for the US. We're addicted to oil and diesel. But here's where it gets interesting. We're the third largest exporter of LNG in the world. We're the second largest exporter of coking coal. We're the largest exporter of thermal coal, and the largest exporter of coking coal in the world.
Export Exposure
We're critically exposed if countries like Nigeria, Uzbekistan, and Brazil decarbonize and electrify. Why? Because they won't be using our fossil fuel exports.
The response from the rest of the world to Trump's attack on the oil security of the world is to electrify. Electric vehicles, batteries, solar, wind. While the America's trade war miscalculation accelerated capital flight and weakened the dollar, this geopolitical conflict is pushing the global economy toward renewable energy even faster.
The Bottom Line
The administration increased gas prices by 40%, and now everyone's buying solar panels and EVs. Whether intentional or not, it's spurring clean energy adoption worldwide. And that's creating an AI boom shortage situation where resources are being redirected toward electrification infrastructure.
China benefits. Developing nations benefit by getting off fossil fuel dependence. But US fossil fuel exporters? They're looking at a shrinking market as the world pivots to renewables.
The irony is hard to miss. An administration many assumed wanted more oil is inadvertently creating conditions that accelerate the clean energy transition globally.